リサーチ - The Economy

シニア・エコノミストのマイケル J. バズダリッチ Ph. Dが最新の経済データについて解説します。(英文のみのご提供)

August Housing Starts Continue to Confound Recession Narrative

Single-family housing starts rose by 3.7% in August to a level of 919,000 units. Multi-family starts rose a whopping 32.8%, to 445,999 units. Multi-family units are generally extremely volatile month-to-month. The trend there has been flat for the last four months, and it is a good bet that the August gain is mere random fluctuation. The single-family gain is another story altogether, and an interesting one.

As you can see in the accompanying chart, single-family starts have been on a declining trend since early-2018, so the gains of the last three months are a distinct contra-trend move. This is one more mark against the contention that the US economy is verging toward recession. We have remarked previously how job growth is holding well all things considered, how the factory sector looks to be showing some signs of a bounce, and how consumer spending is growing robustly. Today’s data extend this skein to the construction sector in general and to housing in particular.

Our story line has been that housing would continue soft through the end of the year. We believe that inventories of unsold new homes had reached intolerably high levels by early-2018, and that it was attempts to rein in excessive inventories that drove the declines in starts over the last 18 months.

The chart shows both starts and sales of new, single-family homes. The scales on the chart are adjusted to reflect the disparity in levels between the two series, since owner-builds show up in the starts data but not in new-home sales. In other words, by our calculations, the fact that the blue line is above the green line over most of the chart points to ever-increasing levels of unsold new homes on the market. By late-2018, new-home inventories had reached 7.4 months’ worth of sales. At that time, builders started discounting prices, which helped boost sales levels to pare inventories. Declining mortgage rates have helped as well. However, levels of inventories have been pared only marginally, and as of July, inventories remained above 6 months’ worth of sales, compared to "normal" levels of about 4 months’ sales.

Even with this downbeat housing story, we still thought the recession narrative was wrong. The fact that housing starts have confounded our story to the upside—along with the other favorable data released lately—is a further knock against the recession story.

We still expect starts to decline over the rest of the year in order to finally bring home inventories back in line. However, the fact that lately starts have bounced nicely anyway underlines the contention that the past year’s softness is a managed response to excess inventories, and NOT evidence of a relentless plunge in the sector.

Sales and Starts of New, Single-Family Homes
Sales and Starts of New, Single-Family Homes
Source: Census Bureau. As of 31 Aug 19

© Western Asset Management Company Ltd 2020. 当資料の著作権は、ウエスタン・アセット・マネジメント株式会社およびその関連会社(以下「ウエスタン・アセット」という)に帰属するものであり、ウエスタン・アセットの顧客、その投資コンサルタント及びその他の当社が意図した受取人のみを対象として作成されたものです。第三者への提供はお断りいたします。当資料の内容は、秘密情報及び専有情報としてお取り扱い下さい。無断で当資料のコピーを作成することや転載することを禁じます。
ウエスタン・アセット・マネジメント・カンパニーDTVM(Distribuidora de Títulos e Valores Mobiliários)リミターダ(ブラジル、サンパウロ拠点)はブラジル証券取引委員会(CVM)とブラジル中央銀行(Bacen)により認可され、また規制を受けます。ウエスタン・アセット・マネジメント・カンパニー・ピーティーワイ・リミテッド (ABN 41 117 767 923) (オーストラリア、メルボルン拠点)はオーストラリアの金融サービスライセンス303160を保有しています。ウエスタン・アセット・マネジメント・カンパニー・ピーティーイー・リミテッド(シンガポール拠点)は、キャピタル・マーケット・サービス(CMS)ライセンス (Co. Reg. No. 200007692R) を保有し、シンガポール通貨監督庁に監督されています。ウエスタン・アセット・マネジメント株式会社(日本拠点)は登録金融商品取引業者であり、金融庁により監督されています。ウエスタン・アセット・マネジメント・カンパニー・リミテッド(英国、ロンドン拠点)は英金融行動監視機構(FCA)により認可され、また規制を受けます。当資料は英国および欧州経済領域(EEA)加盟国においては、FCAまたはMiFID IIに定義された「プロフェッショナルな顧客」のみを対象とした宣伝目的に使用されるものであります。
業務の種類: 金融商品取引業者(投資運用業、投資助言・代理業、第二種金融商品取引業)
登録番号: 関東財務局長(金商)第427号
加入協会: 一般社団法人日本投資顧問業協会(会員番号 011-01319)
© Western Asset Management Company, LLC 2020. This publication is the property of Western Asset and is intended for the sole use of its clients, consultants, and other intended recipients. It should not be forwarded to any other person. Contents herein should be treated as confidential and proprietary information. This material may not be reproduced or used in any form or medium without express written permission.
Past results are not indicative of future investment results. This publication is for informational purposes only and reflects the current opinions of Western Asset. Information contained herein is believed to be accurate, but cannot be guaranteed. Opinions represented are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any security and are subject to change without notice. Statements in this material should not be considered investment advice. Employees and/or clients of Western Asset may have a position in the securities mentioned. This publication has been prepared without taking into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on this information, you should consider its appropriateness having regard to your objectives, financial situation or needs. It is your responsibility to be aware of and observe the applicable laws and regulations of your country of residence.
Western Asset Management Company Distribuidora de Títulos e Valores Mobiliários Limitada is authorised and regulated by Comissão de Valores Mobiliários and Banco Central do Brasil. Western Asset Management Company Pty Ltd ABN 41 117 767 923 is the holder of the Australian Financial Services Licence 303160. Western Asset Management Company Pte. Ltd. Co. Reg. No. 200007692R is a holder of a Capital Markets Services Licence for fund management and regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. Western Asset Management Company Ltd is a registered Financial Instruments Business Operator and regulated by the Financial Services Agency of Japan. Western Asset Management Company Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (“FCA”). This communication is intended for distribution to Professional Clients only if deemed to be a financial promotion in the UK and EEA countries as defined by the FCA or MiFID II rules.