2015年04月14日時点
Retail sales rose in March, but just barely, following three straight declines. Headline sales were up 0.9% in March, and February sales levels were revised up by 0.1%. However, for the more closely watched control group, which excludes cars, gasoline, and building materials, sales were up only 0.4%, and February sales levels were revised downward by 0.2%. On net, underlying sales levels in March were up only 0.2% from where we thought they were in February based on initial reports.
The accompanying chart tells the story. After an apparent pick-up last fall, retail sales have come back to ground over the last four months. Through current March data, they are only slightly above the lackluster trend path that has held since late-2011.
A month ago, we acknowledged possible weather effects holding down February sales, but we argued that the main story was a “three steps forward, two (three?) steps backward” process, whereby the economy couldn’t maintain any momentum toward a faster growth path. Today’s data affirm that assessment. If the severe winter weather indeed held down sales in February, there was little or no “payback” of those effects in March alongside the spring thaw. There is more than just the weather underlying these data.
Within individual store types, both grocery and restaurant sales were especially soft, after restaurants had seen strong sales growth in the fall. Car sales reversed their February declines, but no more than that. Sales at apparel and department stores registered slight gains that failed to fully reverse declines in January and February. Sales at electronics and appliance stores dropped for the sixth straight month, while sales at furniture, books/sporting goods, and building materials stores were at best flat on net over the last four months.
The consumer isn’t dying, but neither has he perked up any recently.
