リサーチ - The Economy

シニア・エコノミストのマイケル J. バズダリッチ Ph. Dが最新の経済データについて解説します。(英文のみのご提供)

October Durables Report Shows CAPEX Bounce

New orders for durable goods rose 0.6% in October. This gain was partially offset by a -0.2% revision to the September level announced last month. Within the durable goods total, new orders for nondefense capital equipment (excluding aircraft) rose 1.2%, with a slight +0.1% upward revision to September.

Press reports this morning have pointed out that much of the October increase in total durables orders came from defense. True, nondefense durables orders rose only 0.1%, and most of the downward revision to September durables orders came within nondefense orders. Nevertheless, nondefense durables orders have at least stabilized over the last five months, after declining significantly over the first five months of 2019. Much the same pattern holds for total durable goods orders. Meanwhile, nondurables orders have risen nicely over the last six months.

I don’t put much store in "soft data" indicators of manufacturing, such as the Institute for Supply Management Index. Such indicators suggest that the US manufacturing sector has fallen out of bed in the last three months. In contrast, "hard data" factory indicators, such as new orders, industrial production, production workers and production hours all indicate that manufacturing began to decline in the fall of 2018, but that this decline bottomed out this past May or June, and there has been some bounce in all of them since then.

This latter seems to me to be the more dependable depiction of manufacturing activity. Certainly, the sector has slowed from the robust growth it saw in 2017 and early-2018, but it is not presently in an ongoing decline that would threaten recession.

In the accompanying chart, you can see the same story with respect to capital goods orders. After declining from early-2013 through the middle of 2016, CAPEX orders grew strongly from mid-2016 through mid-2018. They then declined in late-2018 and early-2019, but appear to have stabilized over the last six months.

So, if you want to decry this year’s softness in CAPEX as a response to the trade wars or as a sign of impending doom, where were you in 2013-16, when CAPEX orders were declining much more sharply than what we have seen this year? And how do you explain the recent stabilization in both CAPEX orders specifically and factory activity in general? Granted, manufacturing and capital spending could be doing better, but we still have a lot to be thankful for.

In other news this morning, consumer spending grew modestly (but steadily) in October, with both goods and services consumption rising at about the same pace. Core inflation was again weak, as measured by the price index for consumer spending (PCE). Wage income grew strongly in October, but within total personal income, that was partially offset by declines in farmers’ income and interest income, as well as by substantial downward benchmark revisions to past months’ income growth.

Happy Thanksgiving to you, and thank you for reading these commentaries.

Orders for Nondefense Capital Goods
Orders for Nondefense Capital Goods
Source: Census Bureau. As of 31 Oct 19

© Western Asset Management Company Ltd 2020. 当資料の著作権は、ウエスタン・アセット・マネジメント株式会社およびその関連会社(以下「ウエスタン・アセット」という)に帰属するものであり、ウエスタン・アセットの顧客、その投資コンサルタント及びその他の当社が意図した受取人のみを対象として作成されたものです。第三者への提供はお断りいたします。当資料の内容は、秘密情報及び専有情報としてお取り扱い下さい。無断で当資料のコピーを作成することや転載することを禁じます。
ウエスタン・アセット・マネジメント・カンパニーDTVM(Distribuidora de Títulos e Valores Mobiliários)リミターダ(ブラジル、サンパウロ拠点)はブラジル証券取引委員会(CVM)とブラジル中央銀行(Bacen)により認可され、また規制を受けます。ウエスタン・アセット・マネジメント・カンパニー・ピーティーワイ・リミテッド (ABN 41 117 767 923) (オーストラリア、メルボルン拠点)はオーストラリアの金融サービスライセンス303160を保有しています。ウエスタン・アセット・マネジメント・カンパニー・ピーティーイー・リミテッド(シンガポール拠点)は、キャピタル・マーケット・サービス(CMS)ライセンス (Co. Reg. No. 200007692R) を保有し、シンガポール通貨監督庁に監督されています。ウエスタン・アセット・マネジメント株式会社(日本拠点)は登録金融商品取引業者であり、金融庁により監督されています。ウエスタン・アセット・マネジメント・カンパニー・リミテッド(英国、ロンドン拠点)は英金融行動監視機構(FCA)により認可され、また規制を受けます。当資料は英国および欧州経済領域(EEA)加盟国においては、FCAまたはMiFID IIに定義された「プロフェッショナルな顧客」のみを対象とした宣伝目的に使用されるものであります。
業務の種類: 金融商品取引業者(投資運用業、投資助言・代理業、第二種金融商品取引業)
登録番号: 関東財務局長(金商)第427号
加入協会: 一般社団法人日本投資顧問業協会(会員番号 011-01319)
© Western Asset Management Company, LLC 2020. This publication is the property of Western Asset and is intended for the sole use of its clients, consultants, and other intended recipients. It should not be forwarded to any other person. Contents herein should be treated as confidential and proprietary information. This material may not be reproduced or used in any form or medium without express written permission.
Past results are not indicative of future investment results. This publication is for informational purposes only and reflects the current opinions of Western Asset. Information contained herein is believed to be accurate, but cannot be guaranteed. Opinions represented are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any security and are subject to change without notice. Statements in this material should not be considered investment advice. Employees and/or clients of Western Asset may have a position in the securities mentioned. This publication has been prepared without taking into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on this information, you should consider its appropriateness having regard to your objectives, financial situation or needs. It is your responsibility to be aware of and observe the applicable laws and regulations of your country of residence.
Western Asset Management Company Distribuidora de Títulos e Valores Mobiliários Limitada is authorised and regulated by Comissão de Valores Mobiliários and Banco Central do Brasil. Western Asset Management Company Pty Ltd ABN 41 117 767 923 is the holder of the Australian Financial Services Licence 303160. Western Asset Management Company Pte. Ltd. Co. Reg. No. 200007692R is a holder of a Capital Markets Services Licence for fund management and regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. Western Asset Management Company Ltd is a registered Financial Instruments Business Operator and regulated by the Financial Services Agency of Japan. Western Asset Management Company Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (“FCA”). This communication is intended for distribution to Professional Clients only if deemed to be a financial promotion in the UK and EEA countries as defined by the FCA or MiFID II rules.